Evaluation and Prediction of Land Use Ecological Security in the Kashgar Region Based on Grid GIS

Predicting trends in land use/cover change (LUCC) and assessing future ecological security (ES) can help effectively balance regional conservation economic development. In this study, a use simulation model was used to predict the spatial-temporal variation Kashgar 2030 under three scenarios (inertial development, agricultural protection, forest rangeland conservation). Subsequently, by combining pressure–state–response predicted use, ES of region 2000, 2010, 2020 were evaluated. We found that (1) only built-up increased from 2000–2020 4174.79 434.44 km2, respectively. (2) The area belonging generally safe level or above decreased 38.36% 2000 36.89% 2010 then 37.71% 2020. (3) 2030, status will be improved, among which protection scenario corresponds best status. This research is valuable for deeply understanding interaction mechanism between LUCC typical artificial oases arid areas sustaining relatively stable internal structures socioeconomic activities oasis region.